With many FMCG businesses now reviewing budgets and finalising their headcount plans for 2027, there's an important question influencing those decisions: are we heading into a period of renewed growth, or should businesses be preparing for another challenging year?
After several years of economic uncertainty, inflationary pressures, rising employment costs and cautious consumer spending, it's understandable that confidence remains mixed.
For businesses planning their commercial and marketing teams for next year, the challenge isn't simply deciding whether to increase headcount. It's identifying where additional capability is needed, which roles will make the greatest commercial difference and when to invest.
Yet there are reasons to be optimistic. Consumer sentiment has improved, businesses are adapting to a challenging operating environment, and opportunities for growth remain.
So, should we be bullish or bearish about 2027?
The case for being bearish
Let's start with the challenges, because there are still plenty.
Despite inflation easing through parts of 2026, the outlook remains uncertain. The Food and Drink Federation is forecasting food inflation of 5.5% in 2027, driven by continued pressures across energy, ingredients, packaging and labour.
For FMCG manufacturers, that means another year of difficult decisions around pricing, margins and investment.
Consumers remain highly price-conscious, and the continued strength of own label, discounters and value-led propositions is putting pressure on branded manufacturers to demonstrate why their products deserve a premium.
Retailer negotiations are unlikely to become any easier, particularly as manufacturers attempt to recover rising costs without sacrificing volume or market share.
There's also the question of investment.
The FDF reported that 84% of food and drink manufacturers weren't planning to increase R&D investment over the following year, while 87% weren't expecting to increase spending on skills.
That's concerning for an industry where innovation, talent and brand differentiation are fundamental to long-term growth.
The case for being bullish
Despite those challenges, there are some encouraging signs.
PwC's Autumn 2026 Consumer Sentiment Survey found that UK consumer confidence had returned to positive territory for the first time in five years.
While this doesn't necessarily translate into an immediate increase in spending, it suggests household finances have been moving in the right direction.
There's also an argument that FMCG businesses have become considerably more resilient.
Over recent years, manufacturers have had to adapt to extraordinary levels of disruption. Supply chain challenges, inflation, changing consumer behaviour and rising operating costs have forced businesses to rethink how they operate.
Many have emerged leaner, more commercially focused and better equipped to respond to changing market conditions.
And importantly, opportunities haven't disappeared.
Businesses are continuing to invest in innovation, new channels, international expansion and opportunities to take market share.
We're also seeing an increasingly competitive landscape, with challenger brands, international entrants and established manufacturers all looking for ways to accelerate growth.
What does this mean for the FMCG talent market?
From a recruitment perspective, 2026 has been an interesting year.
Hiring decisions have often taken longer, headcount approvals have faced greater scrutiny, and businesses have become increasingly selective about where they invest.
But that doesn't necessarily mean demand for talent is disappearing.
When growth becomes harder to achieve, the importance of having the right commercial capabilities increases.
Strong Commercial teams who can negotiate effectively, Category teams who can identify genuine growth opportunities, and Revenue Growth Management specialists who can balance pricing, volume and profitability become even more valuable.
The same applies to Marketing leaders who can build brands, demonstrate ROI and deliver growth with increasingly constrained budgets.
What we're likely to see in 2027 isn't necessarily a widespread return to aggressive hiring, but a more targeted approach to recruitment.
For businesses currently planning their 2027 headcount, we'd encourage three considerations:
- Prioritise capability, not simply headcount. Where are the gaps within your existing teams, and which appointments would have the greatest impact on growth, profitability or customer relationships? The answer may not always be a like-for-like replacement.
- Understand the talent market before finalising budgets. Salary expectations, candidate availability and working arrangements can vary significantly between functions and locations. Benchmarking these early can prevent unrealistic budgets and recruitment challenges further down the line.
- Plan recruitment around business objectives, not just vacancy dates. With notice periods often extending to three months, businesses looking to strengthen their teams in Q1 should already be identifying requirements and engaging potential candidates.
While the wider employment market may offer employers a larger pool of available candidates, attracting individuals with the right experience, capability and track record will remain competitive.
A year of opportunity, rather than recovery?
Perhaps the biggest mistake businesses could make is waiting for the market to return to what it once was.
The commercial environment has changed, consumer behaviour has evolved, and many of the pressures facing manufacturers are structural rather than temporary.
The businesses that succeed in 2027 won't necessarily be those waiting for consumer confidence to recover or operating costs to fall.
They'll be those investing selectively, identifying opportunities ahead of competitors and ensuring they have the right people in place to deliver.
So, bullish or bearish?
Our view? Cautiously bullish.
Not because we expect 2027 to be an easy year, or because the economic challenges facing FMCG are suddenly going to disappear.
But because challenging markets create opportunities for businesses willing to make the right decisions.
We don't expect a universal recovery. Some categories, brands and businesses will undoubtedly perform better than others.
However, we do expect the gap between those investing effectively in growth and those simply protecting what they have to become increasingly apparent.
And from a talent perspective, that makes 2027 particularly interesting.
The question isn't simply whether the market will improve. It's whether businesses are positioning themselves to take advantage of opportunities that arise.
Are you feeling bullish or bearish about 2027?
